Chargers vs. Vikings How one of these two 2022 playoff teams can finally get in the win column

Chargers vs. Vikings How one of these two 2022 playoff teams can finally get in the win column

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Since 1990, only 11.5% of teams that start 0-2 go on make the playoffs. It's not a great number, but it does suggest one of the nine current 0-2 teams will be in this year's postseason.That percentage drops to a measly 2.5 when discu sing 0-3 teams. In fact, only four teams to start 0-2 since 1990 -- the 1992 , 1995 , 1998 and 2018 -- have achieved that sort of turnaround.The Chargers and are both hoping they won't have to find out if they can be the fifth. Both 2022 playoff teams sit at 0-2 this season. But it's not like they haven't been close: Los Angeles' two lo ses are by a combined five points. Minnesota's are by a combined nine points. It's a play here or a play there. But that's the for you. The margins are thin. The Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year and are already 0-2 in those games this year.Which team can make the plays this week? Here's what to look for in Minneapolis.The Chargers pounced on hiring offensive coordinator mere from the same position with the . The Chargers hoped he would unlock considerable arm talent and open up an offense that didn't take many deep shots last year. And in that sense, he has delivered. Justin Herbert20222023Air yards per attempt6.49.1Pct of attempts negative or 0 air yards25%16.2%Pct of attempts 20+ air yards8.4%17.6%Explosive pct6.6%8.3%Expected points added per dropback0.040.16But that approach has come with a lot of negatives. For example, one of Herbert's greatest strengths historically has been his ability to avoid sacks, even when pre sured. That hasn't been the case this year:Herbert 2020-22: 4.9% sack rate on 33.0% pre sure rate; 14.3% sack per pre sure rate was 3rd in behind and Herbert 2023: 7.5% sack rate on 28.6% pre sure rate; 25% sack per pre sure rate is tied for 22nd with and Long story short, Herbert isn't avoiding sacks as well, even Matt Andriese Jersey though he's being pre sured le s. Furthermore, Herbert is being blitzed considerably le s often this year (19% compared to 25% last year) he's losing more yards per sack (8.8 yards compared to 5.4). Trying to produce more plays is great, but it's come at a major cost.Of course the 2023 season is two games old. It's an extremely small sample size. Last week, though, showed just how valuable is to the offense. Without Ekeler playing, Herbert averaged 10.8 air yards per attempt, the third-highest of any game in his career. Just 7.3% Wilmer Flores Jersey of his throws targeted running backs, the second- of any game in his career. Ekeler , and if he can't play, his absence in the pa sing game looms much larger than his absence in the running game. Herbert needs those check-downs to Ekeler to maintain some sort of rhythm and give the defense one more threat to consider.The Vikings' defense has gone from heavy zone to almost exclusively zone under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Minnesota is playing man on 6.3% of opponent dropbacks; only the play le s. Herbert is absolutely shredding zone defenses to the rate of 0.33 expected points added per dropback, fourth in the NFL.Remember when I said it's a play here or there that's causing these teams to lose games? The Chargers' season so far can be embodied by one play: Chargers CB J.C. Jackson with an all-timer bad penalty here. Commits a blatant and unnece sary pa s interference on what should have been the last play of the half. The Dolphins will take the three-point gift. The Comeback (@thecomeback) The Chargers lost this game by two points.Los Angeles has been absolutely abysmal defending the pa s. The Chargers are last in net yards per attempt allowed, last in pa s defense expected points added and 30th in pa s defense penalty expected points added.This season, 207 different players -- including seven different Chargers -- have played at least 40 coverage snaps. Here's where those seven Chargers stand:Chargers as primary defenderYards per attempt allowedRank (out of 207)S 7.3119thCB 8.4152ndS 10.0T-177thLB 11.0T-183rdCB 11.1185thLB 14.0T-203rdCB .15.9205thThe Chargers are the only team in the NFL without a player in the top 100. It's been disastrous acro s the board.When it comes to specifics regarding this game, though, the Chargers have been woeful against play action, allowing an NFL-worst 14.1 yards per attempt on these plays. When reviewing the film, some of it is just really bad one-on-one coverage -- free releasing past Michael Davis for 49 yards and running past Asante Samuel Jr. for a 70-yarder -- but there are also awful miscommunications and blown a signments. For example, here's a freeze frame of a play-action completion from to .This season, leads the NFL in completions per game (10) and is tied for sixth in yards per game (87) on play action attempts. And is Justin Jefferson. The Vikings' pa sing game should be in for a ma sive day.The running game has been awful for Minnesota, though. The Vikings rank eighth in pa sing expected points added and 31st in rushing expected points added. They're 32nd in rushing succe s rate. It's a mix of bad blocking (29th in yards per rush before contact) and bad running (29th in yards per rush after first contact).But here's the shocker:Vikings runners have not made a single tackler mi s through two games according to Pro Football Focus' tracking. Since 2017, when PFF started tracking mi sed tackles forced, Minnesota is the only team to do that.One thing that could help the running game is . The 2021 first-rounder is dealing with an ankle injury, but when he's been on the field, the Vikings average 4.5 yards per carry on traditional rushes (no end-arounds, QB scrambles, etc.) compared to 3.8 when he's not. Considering how bad the Chargers' pa sing defense is, the Vikings may not need Nick Ahmed Jersey a huge rushing day. But it'd be nice to have some balance, if at least to keep Herbert and the Chargers' offense off the field. Darrisaw's status could prove key.
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